Please select your country

Acceptance

You acknowledge and agree that access to this Site is provided only in accordance with these Terms & Conditions.

By accessing this website (the ‘Site’), you agree to be bound by the following terms and conditions (the ‘Terms’). Before using this Site, you should read carefully the Terms, our Cookie Policy and also our Privacy & Security Statement. If you do not agree to these Terms & Conditions, please do not make use of this Site.

The Site has been approved for issue in the UK by AHR Financial Planning Limited trading as AHR Private Wealth. AHR Financial Planning is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”), and is entered on the Financial Services Register with the firm reference number 208467.

AHR Financial Planning is part of a global group of businesses known asThe AHR Group. AHR Financial Planning Limited is registered in England and is established at 56, Wentworth Road, Blacker Hill, Barnsley, United Kingdom, S74 0RP, which is its registered office.

Unless otherwise stated in relevant sections of the website, this website is targeted at investors who are generally classified as qualified, professional, accredited or institutional. The information contained in this website is directed only at persons in a country or jurisdiction where access to the information and the use thereof is not contrary to local law or regulation. It is your responsibility to be aware of and to observe all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdiction when accessing the information contained in this website. In particular, no offer or invitation is made to any US persons (being residents of the United States of America or partnerships or corporations organised under the laws of the United States of America or any state, territory or possession thereof), who are excluded from the services, funds and products included in this site. There will be no public offering of services, funds and products in the United States.

The services, funds and products will not generally be available to U.S. Persons.

Should you wish to contact us please refer to the Contact Us link which can be found on each page of the Site.

In these Terms

  • ‘Content’ means all pages, screens, information and materials included in or accessible through this Site (including any content available on any email or SMS services).
  • ‘you’, ‘your’ and ‘yours’ means you, the person(s) accessing this Site and the party on whose behalf you are doing so.
  • ‘we’, ‘us’ and ‘our’ means HR Capital Partners Limited.
  • ‘HR / HR Group’ means HR Investments Limited, its subsidiaries and associated companies from time to time.

Terms

These Terms cover your use of this Site. All products and services provided by members of the AHR Group have their own terms and conditions (the ‘Product Terms’). You must read both the Product Terms and these Terms. To the extent that the Product Terms conflict with these Terms or any Local Sites’ terms and conditions then the Product Terms will prevail.

We are required by law to tell you that the terms and conditions are in English and that we will communicate with you in English.

From this Site we may provide information or hyperlinks to other websites or pages provided by other entities within the AHR Group (‘Local Sites’) and other parties. Your use of Local Sites and other parties’ sites may be subject to their own terms and conditions. You should read them.

This Site is intended for those who access it from within the United Kingdom. Because of this we cannot guarantee that the Site, or the information thereon, complies with the local laws or regulations of, or is appropriate for use in, any other jurisdiction from which you access it. If you choose to access this Site from a jurisdiction other than the United Kingdom you do so at your own risk and the AHR Group will not be liable for any breach of local law or regulation that you commit as a result of doing so.

Please make sure you read carefully all applicable terms, conditions and disclaimers relevant to your use of the products, services or information that may be offered to you from time to time.

If any part of these Terms is found by any court or other competent authority to be invalid, unlawful or unenforceable then such part shall be severed from the rest of the Terms which shall continue to be valid and enforceable to the fullest extent permitted by law.

Changes to our Terms

You acknowledge that we may amend these Terms from time to time, at our sole discretion. If we elect to amend these Terms, the revised version will be posted on the Site. You undertake to check the Site regularly for any changes we may have made since your last visit to the Site, since any such changes will be binding on you. By using the Site after we have changed or amended these Terms, you acknowledge that you will be accepting those changes or amendments.

These Terms & Conditions were last updated on 6th February 2019.

Availability of site, products and services

The Content, including layout, of this Site or products or services available via this Site may be wholly or partially suspended, withdrawn or changed at any time.

We also reserve the right at any time to immediately suspend the provision of all or any part of this Site to you and/or block your access to this Site.

The provision of financial services or products

Not all the products and services that you may be able to view via the Site are available in all geographical locations. The relevant AHR Group member reserves the right to make the final determination on whether or not you are eligible for any particular product or service.

If you choose to enter a website outside your country of residence, you are advised that it may not be legal in that jurisdiction for you to access or use the facilities available on that site and the legal requirements of that jurisdiction may prohibit you from dealing or otherwise transacting in that jurisdiction. No member of the AHR Group will be liable for any breach of local law or regulation that you may commit as a result of using and accessing a website in a country in which you are not resident.

Please be aware that some of the products and services listed within the Site and those provided by any other AHR Group members or third parties that may be accessed via a link from this Site may not be suitable for all investors. Always read the product information fully before committing to any contractual agreement.

All products or services provided to you by us or any other AHR Group member shall only be available in the jurisdiction/s within which the member providing the product or service is authorised to operate.

You agree that any of the products or services provided to you by us or any other HR Group member shall be deemed to be provided in the jurisdiction within which the member providing the product or service is authorised to operate.

No offer

Information or opinions contained on this Site or in any Local Sites do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation, or offer to buy, any securities or financial instruments or investment advice or any advice or recommendation in respect of such securities or other financial instruments.

Should you seek to rely in any way whatsoever upon any Content contained on this Site, you do so at your own risk.

Before you make any decision or take any action that might affect you or your personal finances or business, you should always consult a suitably qualified professional adviser(s) to obtain appropriate financial, legal, accounting, tax and other advice.

No warranties

Other than the warranties and representations contained in these Terms, all other warranties and representations, whether express, implied or statutory are, to the fullest extent permitted by the law, excluded. We do not exclude or restrict our liabilities or duties to you where or to the extent that this is prohibited by law or regulation. Use of this Site is at your sole risk.

We do not represent that:

  • any information contained on this Site will be accurate, complete or up to date or meet your specific requirements,
  • this Site will be available,
  • access to this Site will be uninterrupted or that there will be no delays, failures, errors or omissions or loss of information as this Site is transmitted to you,
  • no viruses or other contaminating or destructive materials or elements will be transmitted or that your computer system will not be damaged.

We do not provide any guarantee about the accuracy, functionality or performance of any third party software, Content or equipment used in connection with this Site.

Exclusion of our liability

To the extent permitted by law, neither we nor any member of the AHR Group shall be liable for any damage, loss or liability (whether arising in contract, tort, including negligence, or otherwise) arising out of or in connection with:

  • your use of this Site,
  • your reliance on or your inability to use the information, products or services on this Site, or
  • Any failure or performance, error, omission, interruption, defect, delay in operation or transmission, computer virus or line or system failure to this Site or your use or attempted use of it.

The above exclusions apply to any damage which is direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential or consists of loss of profits, business, opportunity or data.

All of the above exclusions apply even if you have advised us or any other member of the AHR Group of the possibility of the above types of damage, loss or liability.

Password and security

In order to use the Site or one or more parts of it, you may be required to become a registered user. In order to become a registered user we will issue you with one or more of the following, namely, registered username, password other security identifier (‘Password’) in accordance with our procedures in place from time to time.

You will keep your Password secret and confidential at all times. Your Password will allow you to access your personal and confidential account and/or financial information.

You must tell us immediately of any unauthorised access to the Site using your Password or any unauthorised transaction or instruction which you know of or suspect of if you suspect someone else knows your Password. We will need you to help us and any law enforcement agency in trying to recover any losses. We may disclose information about you or your account to a law enforcement agency or other third parties if we think it will help prevent or recover losses.

You are wholly responsible for use of the Site by any person using your Password.

We reserve the right to suspend access to the Site in the event that we suspect that an unauthorised person is attempting to access the Site using your Password.

Your obligations

Security – it is your sole responsibility adequately to:

  • protect and back up your data and equipment,
  • undertake reasonable and appropriate precautions against any computer virus or other destructive materials or elements, and
  • ensure that your computers and your access to this Site are adequately secured against any unauthorised users.

Your use of this Site – you may not use this Site or permit others to use this Site:

  • in any way (including via electronic means) and for any purpose which is unlawful, defamatory or libelous, offensive, abusive, indecent, menacing or threatening or in any way that infringes any intellectual property rights or breaches any obligations of confidence, or
  • to cause annoyance, inconvenience or needless anxiety to any other person or in any other way which is in violation of any applicable law or regulation in any jurisdiction in the world, or
  • to introduce a virus or other disruptive material or element or otherwise disrupt or impair this Site or any communication service.

You undertake to comply with any terms notified to you as required from time to time by any third party supplier of data or services to this Site, including but not limited to, where necessary, entering into a direct agreement with such third party in respect of your use of their data.

Third party site and endorsement

  • Links to Third Party Sites – where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any websites or pages of third parties linked to or from this Site. Following links to any websites or pages of third parties shall be at your own risk. We shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in any other way in connection with such linking of those websites or pages.
  • Downloads from Third Party Sites – links to third party downloadable software sites are for convenience only and we are not responsible nor are we liable for any difficulties or consequences associated with downloading that software. You are responsible for obtaining all necessary authorisations to use such software and we give no implied licence or warranty in relation to the obtaining of or use of such software whatsoever.
  • No Endorsement of Third Parties – no endorsement, approval or responsibility for appropriateness of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressed or implied by any hyperlinks to or from any third party websites or pages.

Links to our site

Neither you nor any other party may use any part of this Site on any other website, or link any other website to this Site, without our prior written permission.

We are not responsible for the set-up of any link from a third party website to our Site.

Neither you nor any other party may deep link to, frame, spider, harvest or scrape the Content or otherwise access the Content for any purposes, or use any machine, electronic, web based or similar device to read or extract the Content by machine based or automated means, without our prior written permission.

Intellectual property rights

  • Our Rights – all intellectual property rights (including, without limitation, copyright, database rights, design rights, patents and trademarks) in the Content are owned by or licensed to us unless otherwise stated.
  • HR – HR and the HR logo are trademarks of HR Investments Limited and all rights and benefits in them vest in HR Investments Limited.
  • Copying by you and your access to the Site – you may print, copy, download or temporarily store extracts from this Site for your personal use or to help you use our products and services. You must not alter any extract contained on or obtained from this Site in any form. Any other use is prohibited unless you first get our written permission. Without limiting the above, unless you first get our written consent, you may not reproduce, modify, adapt, transmit, publish, broadcast, create derivative works of, store, archive or in any way exploit any of the Content. Without limitation, neither you nor any other party may do any of the following without prior written consent from us:
    • create any data base in electronic or structured manual form by systematically downloading and storing all or any of the Content; or
    • redistribute any of the Content (including by using it as part of any syndication, content aggregation, archive or similar service); or
    • remove the copyright or trademark notice from any copies of Content made in accordance with these Terms.

Internet and e-mail communications

Messages sent over the Internet (including e-mail) cannot be guaranteed to be completely secure as they are subject to possible interception, monitoring, delay, loss or alteration.

Neither we nor any other member of the AHR Group are responsible for any such messages nor liable to you or anyone else for any damages or otherwise in connection with any messages sent by you to us or any other party or any messages sent or appearing to be sent by us or any third party to you over the Internet (including e-mail). You should not include any sensitive or confidential information in such messages.

Our monitoring of communication

To help us improve our service and in the interest of security, we may monitor and/or record communications (whether over the Internet, telephone or otherwise) between you and us. All recordings are our sole property.

Data protection and Privacy

Cookies

Governing Law

These Terms are governed by and are to be interpreted in accordance with the laws of UK.

The courts in England and Wales will have non-exclusive jurisdiction in respect of any dispute which may arise in connection with the Terms or your use of this Site.

Weekly Market Update April Sunday 4th 2021

The first quarter: where do we now stand?

The first quarter of 2021 saw a continued shift out of safe havens and the stocks that had held up well through the worst of the pandemic, into some of the areas hardest hit last year. Equity markets were generally positive, but with a huge dispersion of returns. Government bond markets suffered as expectations rose for higher inflation given the cyclical recovery. Central bankers on both sides of the Atlantic were more sanguine, sticking to their view that a rise in inflation would be temporary and rates would not rise for some time. Investors were given pause for thought by events including the spectacular rise of GameStop shares fuelled by Reddit, the blockage of the Suez Canal and a hedge fund collapse causing massive losses for some banks. Meanwhile the vaccine rollout and official support for the global economy continued, with varying degrees of success.

In the US

President Biden got to work quickly after his inauguration, reversing many of Trump’s policies. He brought new urgency to the vaccination programme with a target of 100 million doses in his first hundred days, a target that has been exceeded and revised up to 200 million doses. He pushed through a $1.9 trillion support package and at the end of the quarter announced a further $2.25 trillion “American Jobs Plan,” with rises in corporate taxes to pay for it. With the narrowest of margins in the Senate, this may not go through in full, but it will see a substantial increase in infrastructure spending – with an emphasis on sustainability and the green economy. The huge stimulus has caused fears over inflation, with the rate priced into 5-year inflation-protected Treasuries moving up to 2.6%, well above the Federal Reserve 2% target. Year-on-year inflation will be higher in the middle of this year, not least because the oil price has recovered from the lows of last year. Longer-dated US Treasury yields moved sharply higher and the market has started to price in rate hikes ahead of Federal Reserve expectations.

In Europe

The vaccine rollout has been successful in the US and UK but, in other parts of the world, particularly Europe, it has been slow – with doubts raised about the safety and efficacy of some of the vaccines. In these places, cases are rising and renewed lockdowns are being enforced, with the economic recovery delayed. The European Central Bank has extended its support and also noted that they expect any rise in inflation to be transitory.

In the UK

The UK agreed the Brexit deal at the end of 2020, but there have been difficulties particularly over Northern Ireland. The recent dispute over vaccine distribution added to ill feeling between the UK and the EU. For now, the pandemic impact on the economy is much larger than any Brexit effect, but there are signs of difficulties with delays in customs.

In China

China is heading towards being the largest economy in the world and, while the pandemic started there, they came through it well. The crackdown on democracy activists in Hong Kong and Alibaba’s venture into financial services show that they want to retain a degree of central control. Tensions over claims to territory in the South China Sea and Taiwan have added to uncertainty. There was some weakness in Chinese stocks: the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index is down 3% after a strong 2020. This remains a region for investment opportunities, but the moves in the first quarter demonstrate some of the difficulties.

In the stock market

The rise in US Treasury yields caused a sell-off in tech and growth stocks. Banks are benefiting from a steeper yield curve. Energy and materials stocks also did well, as the market priced in a post-pandemic boom. Leisure and transportation have also recovered on expectations that markets will reopen. Some share prices have even gone above the pre-pandemic level. This optimism may be overdone, so we add a note of caution.

In the last week of the quarter, the unwind of big leveraged positions that had been built up by investment firm Archegos caused substantial losses for certain investment banks. This caused big moves in individual stocks as several banks sold at the same time. Hedge funds also appeared to be a target when chat on social media caused a more than tenfold rise in the price of GameStop. A bricks and mortar retailer in the middle of an online shopping boom, GameStop had been heavily shorted by hedge funds. In this case, hedge funds were beaten by social media. High street retailers may have appeared easy targets for short sellers as the move to online shopping was accelerated by the pandemic. The attention of the Reddit community may have caused a reassessment of these short positions.

In global supply chains

This time last year we were concerned about supply chains given the closure of factories in the Far East. This quarter, the blockage of the Suez Canal raised those fears again. Fortunately, this was a temporary closure. However, with over 400 ships delayed and arriving at ports at the wrong time, some manufacturers may find themselves short of parts in the next month. Intel has announced the investment of $20billion in two new factories in Arizona. Meanwhile, part of the Biden investment plan is to reduce US reliance on Chinese manufacturing. Repatriating manufacturing will require investment in robotics and artificial intelligence if they want to offset higher labour costs.

In brief

Overall, what helped protect portfolios through the worst of the pandemic has suffered in the first quarter of 2021; meanwhile, investments that had been hit hard have recovered. There remains considerable uncertainty around the path of recovery and, in the short term, this move may have swung too far. The companies that suffered during the pandemic will recover some of their earnings, but their balance sheets have been damaged and this may make growth difficult. Those looking to smooth long-term returns should look to companies with more stable earnings and strong balance sheets. China and the Far Eastern markets will continue to be drivers of global growth, but do carry higher risks. After the pandemic recovery, we expect a return to the slow-growth, low-inflation world that existed pre-pandemic. Given the higher government and corporate borrowing incurred during the pandemic, we expect central banks to be slow to raise interest rates. Productivity gains come from technological innovation, so investment in technology will be important. In conclusion, we expect investors will return to the quality growth companies that have suffered in the last quarter.

 

Courtesy of Jonathan Marriott, CIO at LGT Vestra

Enter your details below

Let us help you