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The Site has been approved for issue in the UK by AHR Financial Planning Limited trading as AHR Private Wealth. AHR Financial Planning is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”), and is entered on the Financial Services Register with the firm reference number 208467.

AHR Financial Planning is part of a global group of businesses known asThe AHR Group. AHR Financial Planning Limited is registered in England and is established at 56, Wentworth Road, Blacker Hill, Barnsley, United Kingdom, S74 0RP, which is its registered office.

Unless otherwise stated in relevant sections of the website, this website is targeted at investors who are generally classified as qualified, professional, accredited or institutional. The information contained in this website is directed only at persons in a country or jurisdiction where access to the information and the use thereof is not contrary to local law or regulation. It is your responsibility to be aware of and to observe all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdiction when accessing the information contained in this website. In particular, no offer or invitation is made to any US persons (being residents of the United States of America or partnerships or corporations organised under the laws of the United States of America or any state, territory or possession thereof), who are excluded from the services, funds and products included in this site. There will be no public offering of services, funds and products in the United States.

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In these Terms

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Terms

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We are required by law to tell you that the terms and conditions are in English and that we will communicate with you in English.

From this Site we may provide information or hyperlinks to other websites or pages provided by other entities within the AHR Group (‘Local Sites’) and other parties. Your use of Local Sites and other parties’ sites may be subject to their own terms and conditions. You should read them.

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Changes to our Terms

You acknowledge that we may amend these Terms from time to time, at our sole discretion. If we elect to amend these Terms, the revised version will be posted on the Site. You undertake to check the Site regularly for any changes we may have made since your last visit to the Site, since any such changes will be binding on you. By using the Site after we have changed or amended these Terms, you acknowledge that you will be accepting those changes or amendments.

These Terms & Conditions were last updated on 6th February 2019.

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The Content, including layout, of this Site or products or services available via this Site may be wholly or partially suspended, withdrawn or changed at any time.

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Weekly Market Update April Sunday 11th 2021

Uneven US recovery allows bond yields to fall and technology to lead

The US Institute of Supply Management released their latest survey for the services sector this week, coming in above expectations at 63.7 (with any number above 50 indicating expansion) and at an all-time high, propelling equity markets higher. However, this was combined with an unexpected rise in new US jobless claims, pointing towards an uneven economic recovery, and allowing bond yields to fall (yields move inversely to price).

As of 12pm London time on Friday, technology stocks, which have suffered selling pressure this year in anticipation of the reopening of economies, have led the way, with the global technology sector rising by 3.5% over the week. The US equity market increased by 1.9%, European equities 1.2% and UK stocks 2.8%. Japanese equities declined by 0.6%, not helped by an increase in coronavirus cases, against a background of a slow vaccine rollout programme. Australian equities were up 2.4%, supported by the metals and mining sector which rose by 3.5%. Emerging markets increased by 0.4%, whilst Chinese equities fell by 1.0% despite the latest Caixin Purchasing managers Index for services, considered a good lead indicator for the health of the services sector, exceeding expectations, coming in at 54.3. Chinese equities have suffered weakness this year as monetary support is expected to tighten as the economy is one of the few to have grown last year, and investors see greater opportunities in recovery elsewhere.

US Treasury 10-year yields fell further this week

US Treasury 10-year yields fell further this week, touching 1.62%, having been as high as 1.77% at the end of March. Currently, they are trading at 1.66%. The Federal Reserve continued to emphasise its accommodative approach to monetary policy and cited the risks of stronger inflation as equally balanced against the risks of weak inflation. 10-year German bunds are currently trading at -0.30% and equivalent UK gilts at 0.79%.

Precious and industrial metals both rose this week

Precious and industrial metals both rose this week, helped by a weaker US dollar. Gold was up by 1.1%, now trading at $1,748 an ounce, whilst copper increased by 2.2% and Iron ore 3.9%. Crude oil fell, with Brent currently trading at $63.1 a barrel and US WTI (West Texas Intermediate) $59.6.

Issues under discussion

Covid vaccine rollout points to global growth

Next month, investors will be eagerly awaiting the release of inflation data for the month of April, which is expected to show a material pickup, given that it is a year-on-year number and last April many western economies were in lockdown. This much is widely expected, however, what happens after offers up very polarised views.

One very well-respected US investment house expects any rise in inflation to be a ‘head fake’ as the deflationary forces of demographics, globalisation, and technology re-exert themselves thereafter.

Whilst another believes the effect of the US government posting out significant sums of cash support, combined with a US consumer who has been oppressed for the last year, is likely to lead to a jump in US inflation that will then remain with us for at least the remainder of the year.

Either way, for as long as Covid vaccine rollout programmes are successful, we believe global growth will be strong, and much stronger than what we have become accustomed to, and consequently, this should benefit economically sensitive stocks to a much greater extent.

So far this year, value, or economically sensitive stocks, have only really benefitted when bond yields are rising, which is a signal that the bond markets are expecting stronger inflation as a result of stronger growth. However, value historically did not need bond yields to rise to outperform, yet that has been the experience since the financial crisis of 2008/09. We wonder whether value will once again be able to outperform based on improving company fundamentals and not just the direction of bond yields.

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