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By accessing this website (the ‘Site’), you agree to be bound by the following terms and conditions (the ‘Terms’). Before using this Site, you should read carefully the Terms, our Cookie Policy and also our Privacy & Security Statement. If you do not agree to these Terms & Conditions, please do not make use of this Site.

The Site has been approved for issue in the UK by AHR Financial Planning Limited trading as AHR Private Wealth. AHR Financial Planning is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”), and is entered on the Financial Services Register with the firm reference number 208467.

AHR Financial Planning is part of a global group of businesses known asThe AHR Group. AHR Financial Planning Limited is registered in England and is established at 56, Wentworth Road, Blacker Hill, Barnsley, United Kingdom, S74 0RP, which is its registered office.

Unless otherwise stated in relevant sections of the website, this website is targeted at investors who are generally classified as qualified, professional, accredited or institutional. The information contained in this website is directed only at persons in a country or jurisdiction where access to the information and the use thereof is not contrary to local law or regulation. It is your responsibility to be aware of and to observe all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdiction when accessing the information contained in this website. In particular, no offer or invitation is made to any US persons (being residents of the United States of America or partnerships or corporations organised under the laws of the United States of America or any state, territory or possession thereof), who are excluded from the services, funds and products included in this site. There will be no public offering of services, funds and products in the United States.

The services, funds and products will not generally be available to U.S. Persons.

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In these Terms

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Terms

These Terms cover your use of this Site. All products and services provided by members of the AHR Group have their own terms and conditions (the ‘Product Terms’). You must read both the Product Terms and these Terms. To the extent that the Product Terms conflict with these Terms or any Local Sites’ terms and conditions then the Product Terms will prevail.

We are required by law to tell you that the terms and conditions are in English and that we will communicate with you in English.

From this Site we may provide information or hyperlinks to other websites or pages provided by other entities within the AHR Group (‘Local Sites’) and other parties. Your use of Local Sites and other parties’ sites may be subject to their own terms and conditions. You should read them.

This Site is intended for those who access it from within the United Kingdom. Because of this we cannot guarantee that the Site, or the information thereon, complies with the local laws or regulations of, or is appropriate for use in, any other jurisdiction from which you access it. If you choose to access this Site from a jurisdiction other than the United Kingdom you do so at your own risk and the AHR Group will not be liable for any breach of local law or regulation that you commit as a result of doing so.

Please make sure you read carefully all applicable terms, conditions and disclaimers relevant to your use of the products, services or information that may be offered to you from time to time.

If any part of these Terms is found by any court or other competent authority to be invalid, unlawful or unenforceable then such part shall be severed from the rest of the Terms which shall continue to be valid and enforceable to the fullest extent permitted by law.

Changes to our Terms

You acknowledge that we may amend these Terms from time to time, at our sole discretion. If we elect to amend these Terms, the revised version will be posted on the Site. You undertake to check the Site regularly for any changes we may have made since your last visit to the Site, since any such changes will be binding on you. By using the Site after we have changed or amended these Terms, you acknowledge that you will be accepting those changes or amendments.

These Terms & Conditions were last updated on 6th February 2019.

Availability of site, products and services

The Content, including layout, of this Site or products or services available via this Site may be wholly or partially suspended, withdrawn or changed at any time.

We also reserve the right at any time to immediately suspend the provision of all or any part of this Site to you and/or block your access to this Site.

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If you choose to enter a website outside your country of residence, you are advised that it may not be legal in that jurisdiction for you to access or use the facilities available on that site and the legal requirements of that jurisdiction may prohibit you from dealing or otherwise transacting in that jurisdiction. No member of the AHR Group will be liable for any breach of local law or regulation that you may commit as a result of using and accessing a website in a country in which you are not resident.

Please be aware that some of the products and services listed within the Site and those provided by any other AHR Group members or third parties that may be accessed via a link from this Site may not be suitable for all investors. Always read the product information fully before committing to any contractual agreement.

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Information or opinions contained on this Site or in any Local Sites do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation, or offer to buy, any securities or financial instruments or investment advice or any advice or recommendation in respect of such securities or other financial instruments.

Should you seek to rely in any way whatsoever upon any Content contained on this Site, you do so at your own risk.

Before you make any decision or take any action that might affect you or your personal finances or business, you should always consult a suitably qualified professional adviser(s) to obtain appropriate financial, legal, accounting, tax and other advice.

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Other than the warranties and representations contained in these Terms, all other warranties and representations, whether express, implied or statutory are, to the fullest extent permitted by the law, excluded. We do not exclude or restrict our liabilities or duties to you where or to the extent that this is prohibited by law or regulation. Use of this Site is at your sole risk.

We do not represent that:

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To the extent permitted by law, neither we nor any member of the AHR Group shall be liable for any damage, loss or liability (whether arising in contract, tort, including negligence, or otherwise) arising out of or in connection with:

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The above exclusions apply to any damage which is direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential or consists of loss of profits, business, opportunity or data.

All of the above exclusions apply even if you have advised us or any other member of the AHR Group of the possibility of the above types of damage, loss or liability.

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You must tell us immediately of any unauthorised access to the Site using your Password or any unauthorised transaction or instruction which you know of or suspect of if you suspect someone else knows your Password. We will need you to help us and any law enforcement agency in trying to recover any losses. We may disclose information about you or your account to a law enforcement agency or other third parties if we think it will help prevent or recover losses.

You are wholly responsible for use of the Site by any person using your Password.

We reserve the right to suspend access to the Site in the event that we suspect that an unauthorised person is attempting to access the Site using your Password.

Your obligations

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Macro in Minutes

A brief overview of key Global Macro Economic events Quarter 1, 2021

Biden Inauguration

Investors started the year with much optimism as the confirmation of Joe Biden as the new President of the United States brought with it promise of economic reform and fiscal stimulus to help revive a slowly recovering global economy post Covid 19. True to his word the newly inaugurated president set about on construction of the world’s largest economic stimulus package, the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan. A key focus of the plan saw individuals across the US receive direct payments of $1,400, adding to the record high personal income levels US citizens have reached, despite the ongoing pandemic. What is perhaps most interesting about the record income levels of US citizens is that we ended the first quarter with US unemployment at 6%, still plenty of slack from the 3.5% record levels seen prior to the Coronavirus outbreak.

Inflation Concerns

With increasing consumer confidence, disposable income and optimism around the rollout of Covid 19 vaccines, attention quickly turned to increasing consumer demand and pricing pressures. Whether or not the re-opening of global economies would result in an uncontrollable inflation spike was undoubtedly the key question for investors throughout the first quarter. This question and perceived risk played out throughout major asset classes across the quarter, with Government bond yields increasing (yields move inversely to price) as investors looked to preserve their expected real rate of return. The same theme played out throughout growth stocks with tech stocks in particular, whose valuations often trade on high multiples to their future expected earnings, becoming increasingly volatile throughout the quarter. This trend in particular, highlighted the importance of valuation metrics in asset selection and the potential for valuation traps or bubbles in those areas of the market where valuations have reached astronomical levels, often unsupported by reliable earnings.

As well as increasing consumer demand, questions around global supply chains amidst a global recovery added to inflationary expectations. These concerns were not helped when towards the end of the quarter a container ship, the size of four football pitches, became lodged within the Suez canal in Egypt. With trade passing through the canal at a value of approximately $10billion per day, concerns surrounding the vulnerability of global supply chains, highlighted by Covid 19, were increased.

Covid Recovery

Whilst re-opening of the world’s largest economies brought with it questions about inflation, it also brought with it optimism that people could begin to resume ordinary life, to a degree. The successful distribution of vaccines across key economies has done much to increase this optimism across the first quarter. The UK in particular operating a successful vaccine distribution programme, administering over 35,000,000 vaccine doses so far. This successful deployment offered a glimmer of hope to UK investors after years of Brexit focus and initial mishandling of the Covid 19 outbreak. This progress has led to improved first-quarter returns for domestic UK stocks and maintained the strength of sterling, against the US dollar in particular. The more risk-on approach adopted by UK investors has however caused issues for safe haven UK Gilt investors who have experienced noticeable price falls led by a combination of inflation expectations and increasing flows from bonds to equities.

Chinese Optimism and Reality Checks

Another major economy in focus at the start of the year was that of China, which after successful containment of Covid 19 had rebounded to economic growth quickly, being the only G20 economy to record growth in 2020. This alongside an improving backdrop of GDP growth expectations for 2021, improving export figures and increasing foreign direct investment saw significant inflows into Chinese equities and bonds throughout the first quarter. Whilst initial returns across Chinese equities were positive, increased volatility in Chinese based stocks set in throughout the quarter, highlighting the contrasting political dynamics of investing in China verse other developed equity markets. Following the Central Bank postponement of the Ant Group IPO in 2020, tech firms across China continued to come under regulatory scrutiny throughout the first quarter with President Xi Jinping calling for tighter controls for tech-based, platform companies. This pressure weighed heavy on tech giants Alibaba and Tencent, whilst the wider global volatility surrounding technology stocks, heightened political tensions with the USA and increasing energy prices contributed to muted first quarter returns for Chinese indices.

The Great Rotation

Towards the end of 2020 with increasing hope that the re-opening of global economies was in sight, a sector rotation across equity markets began. Whilst growth stocks, led by the technology sector, had dominated returns following the onset of Covid 19, those stocks linked to the ‘real’ economy began to outperform. Sectors such as energy, financials and industrials have continued this outperformance throughout the start of 2021 as value stocks outperformed growth stocks for the quarter, following a decade of significant underperformance. Whilst there are some obvious links between the re-opening of economies and sectors likely to benefit, investors should be wary of seeking discounted companies, attempting to achieve pre-Covid price levels. Covid 19 has undoubtedly accelerated a number of technological and social trends, so identifying those companies that are truly value and those that are the victims of disruption should be a key focus for any value investors in the current environment.

All of the above events leave investors with much information to digest and some key decisions to make moving into the second quarter of the year. For our clients, we remain focused on long term growth objectives and an investment approach that leads us to quality investments that we understand. There will continue to be many short-term investment trends ahead, as there has been throughout history. However, to differentiate between speculating and investing we urge investors to remain focused on long term growth objectives, utilising the investment principles that have successfully passed the test of time.

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