Please select your country


You acknowledge and agree that access to this Site is provided only in accordance with these Terms & Conditions.

By accessing this website (the ‘Site’), you agree to be bound by the following terms and conditions (the ‘Terms’). Before using this Site, you should read carefully the Terms, our Cookie Policy and also our Privacy & Security Statement. If you do not agree to these Terms & Conditions, please do not make use of this Site.

The Site has been approved for issue in the UK by AHR Financial Planning Limited trading as AHR Private Wealth. AHR Financial Planning is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”), and is entered on the Financial Services Register with the firm reference number 208467.

AHR Financial Planning is part of a global group of businesses known asThe AHR Group. AHR Financial Planning Limited is registered in England and is established at 56, Wentworth Road, Blacker Hill, Barnsley, United Kingdom, S74 0RP, which is its registered office.

Unless otherwise stated in relevant sections of the website, this website is targeted at investors who are generally classified as qualified, professional, accredited or institutional. The information contained in this website is directed only at persons in a country or jurisdiction where access to the information and the use thereof is not contrary to local law or regulation. It is your responsibility to be aware of and to observe all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdiction when accessing the information contained in this website. In particular, no offer or invitation is made to any US persons (being residents of the United States of America or partnerships or corporations organised under the laws of the United States of America or any state, territory or possession thereof), who are excluded from the services, funds and products included in this site. There will be no public offering of services, funds and products in the United States.

The services, funds and products will not generally be available to U.S. Persons.

Should you wish to contact us please refer to the Contact Us link which can be found on each page of the Site.

In these Terms

  • ‘Content’ means all pages, screens, information and materials included in or accessible through this Site (including any content available on any email or SMS services).
  • ‘you’, ‘your’ and ‘yours’ means you, the person(s) accessing this Site and the party on whose behalf you are doing so.
  • ‘we’, ‘us’ and ‘our’ means HR Capital Partners Limited.
  • ‘HR / HR Group’ means HR Investments Limited, its subsidiaries and associated companies from time to time.


These Terms cover your use of this Site. All products and services provided by members of the AHR Group have their own terms and conditions (the ‘Product Terms’). You must read both the Product Terms and these Terms. To the extent that the Product Terms conflict with these Terms or any Local Sites’ terms and conditions then the Product Terms will prevail.

We are required by law to tell you that the terms and conditions are in English and that we will communicate with you in English.

From this Site we may provide information or hyperlinks to other websites or pages provided by other entities within the AHR Group (‘Local Sites’) and other parties. Your use of Local Sites and other parties’ sites may be subject to their own terms and conditions. You should read them.

This Site is intended for those who access it from within the United Kingdom. Because of this we cannot guarantee that the Site, or the information thereon, complies with the local laws or regulations of, or is appropriate for use in, any other jurisdiction from which you access it. If you choose to access this Site from a jurisdiction other than the United Kingdom you do so at your own risk and the AHR Group will not be liable for any breach of local law or regulation that you commit as a result of doing so.

Please make sure you read carefully all applicable terms, conditions and disclaimers relevant to your use of the products, services or information that may be offered to you from time to time.

If any part of these Terms is found by any court or other competent authority to be invalid, unlawful or unenforceable then such part shall be severed from the rest of the Terms which shall continue to be valid and enforceable to the fullest extent permitted by law.

Changes to our Terms

You acknowledge that we may amend these Terms from time to time, at our sole discretion. If we elect to amend these Terms, the revised version will be posted on the Site. You undertake to check the Site regularly for any changes we may have made since your last visit to the Site, since any such changes will be binding on you. By using the Site after we have changed or amended these Terms, you acknowledge that you will be accepting those changes or amendments.

These Terms & Conditions were last updated on 6th February 2019.

Availability of site, products and services

The Content, including layout, of this Site or products or services available via this Site may be wholly or partially suspended, withdrawn or changed at any time.

We also reserve the right at any time to immediately suspend the provision of all or any part of this Site to you and/or block your access to this Site.

The provision of financial services or products

Not all the products and services that you may be able to view via the Site are available in all geographical locations. The relevant AHR Group member reserves the right to make the final determination on whether or not you are eligible for any particular product or service.

If you choose to enter a website outside your country of residence, you are advised that it may not be legal in that jurisdiction for you to access or use the facilities available on that site and the legal requirements of that jurisdiction may prohibit you from dealing or otherwise transacting in that jurisdiction. No member of the AHR Group will be liable for any breach of local law or regulation that you may commit as a result of using and accessing a website in a country in which you are not resident.

Please be aware that some of the products and services listed within the Site and those provided by any other AHR Group members or third parties that may be accessed via a link from this Site may not be suitable for all investors. Always read the product information fully before committing to any contractual agreement.

All products or services provided to you by us or any other AHR Group member shall only be available in the jurisdiction/s within which the member providing the product or service is authorised to operate.

You agree that any of the products or services provided to you by us or any other HR Group member shall be deemed to be provided in the jurisdiction within which the member providing the product or service is authorised to operate.

No offer

Information or opinions contained on this Site or in any Local Sites do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation, or offer to buy, any securities or financial instruments or investment advice or any advice or recommendation in respect of such securities or other financial instruments.

Should you seek to rely in any way whatsoever upon any Content contained on this Site, you do so at your own risk.

Before you make any decision or take any action that might affect you or your personal finances or business, you should always consult a suitably qualified professional adviser(s) to obtain appropriate financial, legal, accounting, tax and other advice.

No warranties

Other than the warranties and representations contained in these Terms, all other warranties and representations, whether express, implied or statutory are, to the fullest extent permitted by the law, excluded. We do not exclude or restrict our liabilities or duties to you where or to the extent that this is prohibited by law or regulation. Use of this Site is at your sole risk.

We do not represent that:

  • any information contained on this Site will be accurate, complete or up to date or meet your specific requirements,
  • this Site will be available,
  • access to this Site will be uninterrupted or that there will be no delays, failures, errors or omissions or loss of information as this Site is transmitted to you,
  • no viruses or other contaminating or destructive materials or elements will be transmitted or that your computer system will not be damaged.

We do not provide any guarantee about the accuracy, functionality or performance of any third party software, Content or equipment used in connection with this Site.

Exclusion of our liability

To the extent permitted by law, neither we nor any member of the AHR Group shall be liable for any damage, loss or liability (whether arising in contract, tort, including negligence, or otherwise) arising out of or in connection with:

  • your use of this Site,
  • your reliance on or your inability to use the information, products or services on this Site, or
  • Any failure or performance, error, omission, interruption, defect, delay in operation or transmission, computer virus or line or system failure to this Site or your use or attempted use of it.

The above exclusions apply to any damage which is direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential or consists of loss of profits, business, opportunity or data.

All of the above exclusions apply even if you have advised us or any other member of the AHR Group of the possibility of the above types of damage, loss or liability.

Password and security

In order to use the Site or one or more parts of it, you may be required to become a registered user. In order to become a registered user we will issue you with one or more of the following, namely, registered username, password other security identifier (‘Password’) in accordance with our procedures in place from time to time.

You will keep your Password secret and confidential at all times. Your Password will allow you to access your personal and confidential account and/or financial information.

You must tell us immediately of any unauthorised access to the Site using your Password or any unauthorised transaction or instruction which you know of or suspect of if you suspect someone else knows your Password. We will need you to help us and any law enforcement agency in trying to recover any losses. We may disclose information about you or your account to a law enforcement agency or other third parties if we think it will help prevent or recover losses.

You are wholly responsible for use of the Site by any person using your Password.

We reserve the right to suspend access to the Site in the event that we suspect that an unauthorised person is attempting to access the Site using your Password.

Your obligations

Security – it is your sole responsibility adequately to:

  • protect and back up your data and equipment,
  • undertake reasonable and appropriate precautions against any computer virus or other destructive materials or elements, and
  • ensure that your computers and your access to this Site are adequately secured against any unauthorised users.

Your use of this Site – you may not use this Site or permit others to use this Site:

  • in any way (including via electronic means) and for any purpose which is unlawful, defamatory or libelous, offensive, abusive, indecent, menacing or threatening or in any way that infringes any intellectual property rights or breaches any obligations of confidence, or
  • to cause annoyance, inconvenience or needless anxiety to any other person or in any other way which is in violation of any applicable law or regulation in any jurisdiction in the world, or
  • to introduce a virus or other disruptive material or element or otherwise disrupt or impair this Site or any communication service.

You undertake to comply with any terms notified to you as required from time to time by any third party supplier of data or services to this Site, including but not limited to, where necessary, entering into a direct agreement with such third party in respect of your use of their data.

Third party site and endorsement

  • Links to Third Party Sites – where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any websites or pages of third parties linked to or from this Site. Following links to any websites or pages of third parties shall be at your own risk. We shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in any other way in connection with such linking of those websites or pages.
  • Downloads from Third Party Sites – links to third party downloadable software sites are for convenience only and we are not responsible nor are we liable for any difficulties or consequences associated with downloading that software. You are responsible for obtaining all necessary authorisations to use such software and we give no implied licence or warranty in relation to the obtaining of or use of such software whatsoever.
  • No Endorsement of Third Parties – no endorsement, approval or responsibility for appropriateness of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressed or implied by any hyperlinks to or from any third party websites or pages.

Links to our site

Neither you nor any other party may use any part of this Site on any other website, or link any other website to this Site, without our prior written permission.

We are not responsible for the set-up of any link from a third party website to our Site.

Neither you nor any other party may deep link to, frame, spider, harvest or scrape the Content or otherwise access the Content for any purposes, or use any machine, electronic, web based or similar device to read or extract the Content by machine based or automated means, without our prior written permission.

Intellectual property rights

  • Our Rights – all intellectual property rights (including, without limitation, copyright, database rights, design rights, patents and trademarks) in the Content are owned by or licensed to us unless otherwise stated.
  • HR – HR and the HR logo are trademarks of HR Investments Limited and all rights and benefits in them vest in HR Investments Limited.
  • Copying by you and your access to the Site – you may print, copy, download or temporarily store extracts from this Site for your personal use or to help you use our products and services. You must not alter any extract contained on or obtained from this Site in any form. Any other use is prohibited unless you first get our written permission. Without limiting the above, unless you first get our written consent, you may not reproduce, modify, adapt, transmit, publish, broadcast, create derivative works of, store, archive or in any way exploit any of the Content. Without limitation, neither you nor any other party may do any of the following without prior written consent from us:
    • create any data base in electronic or structured manual form by systematically downloading and storing all or any of the Content; or
    • redistribute any of the Content (including by using it as part of any syndication, content aggregation, archive or similar service); or
    • remove the copyright or trademark notice from any copies of Content made in accordance with these Terms.

Internet and e-mail communications

Messages sent over the Internet (including e-mail) cannot be guaranteed to be completely secure as they are subject to possible interception, monitoring, delay, loss or alteration.

Neither we nor any other member of the AHR Group are responsible for any such messages nor liable to you or anyone else for any damages or otherwise in connection with any messages sent by you to us or any other party or any messages sent or appearing to be sent by us or any third party to you over the Internet (including e-mail). You should not include any sensitive or confidential information in such messages.

Our monitoring of communication

To help us improve our service and in the interest of security, we may monitor and/or record communications (whether over the Internet, telephone or otherwise) between you and us. All recordings are our sole property.

Data protection and Privacy


Governing Law

These Terms are governed by and are to be interpreted in accordance with the laws of UK.

The courts in England and Wales will have non-exclusive jurisdiction in respect of any dispute which may arise in connection with the Terms or your use of this Site.

Global Market Outlook 2019

This years global market outlook is bought to you by JP Morgan’s insight team. 

U.S. Equities

More Upside Seen for Stocks as Earnings Stay Positive

The current cycle is close to the longest uninterrupted expansion since 1860, which has caused anxiety among investors. “This concern seems misplaced, in our opinion, since the present cycle has already experienced two intra-cycle resets, in mid-2011 and late-2015,” said J.P. Morgan Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, adding that 2018 could be viewed as a third reset — a year characterised by significant deleveraging and unwinding of crowded trades, with equity positioning now at very low levels.

Looking ahead, fundamentals should remain healthy, as far as earnings, investment spending, corporate balance sheets and leverage are concerned. While earnings are expected to decelerate relative to 2018, they should still remain positive and continue to grow according to J.P. Morgan forecasts. “Based on our probability-weighted analysis of U.S.-China trade outcomes (55% trade deal, 35% cease-fire, 10% tariff escalation), we set our 2019 S&P 500 price target to 3,100 and earnings per share (EPS) estimate at $178,” said Lakos-Bujas.

Global Growth

U.S. to Cool as Europe Bounces Back

After delivering its second straight year of above potential GDP gains, higher inflation and interest rates in 2018, growth in the global economy is set to ease off slightly in 2019. J.P. Morgan estimates the global economy will grow 2.9% in 2019, slightly lower than the 3.1% forecast for 2018.

“The U.S. economy posted a boomy 3.1% in GDP growth in 2018, a figure which is set to fall to a closer-to-trend 1.9% in 2019, as fiscal, monetary and trade policies start tightening up,” said J.P. Morgan Chief Economist Bruce Kasman. Recent disruptions in the euro area industry are expected to fade and the region is forecast to grow 2%, offsetting moderation in U.S. growth. China on the other hand, is facing considerable challenges sustaining growth at around 6% as it deals with internal imbalances and external drag.


Brexit and Italy in the Spotlight

Political tail risks remain a headwind for European stocks. It is still unclear whether the current substantial Italian debt overhang is manageable and in the U.K., equities may present a good buying opportunity as the probability for an orderly negotiated exit from the European Union has shifted to just 50% according to J.P. Morgan forecasts. The probability of “no deal” in the first half of 2019 has also gone down from 20% to 10%, while the likelihood of “no Brexit” has doubled from 20% to 40% according to the latest J.P. Morgan estimates.


U.S.–China Trade Tensions to Continue

President Trump and President Xi agreed on a temporary truce after their G20 meeting in December, with further tariff actions put on hold for 90 days to allow negotiations. Despite the tentative ceasefire, uncertainty remains high. Even with an agreement, negotiations will likely be bumpy and confrontations may intensify again, making the U.S.-China trade relationship a key driver of the Chinese equity market. The government are expected to lower the growth target to 6-6.5% in 2019, with J.P. Morgan estimating 6.2%, down from 6.6% in 2018.

Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets Look Mixed

“After a challenging second half in 2018 for many Emerging Market (EM) economies, the carryover effect will likely result in a weak start to the year, but our forecast assumes that a cyclical pickup takes hold starting in the second quarter of 2019, followed by end-of-cycle pressures later in the year,” said J.P. Morgan Head of Currencies, Commodities and EM Research Luis Oganes.

Latin America is the one region with modestly faster activity forecast for next year, as China is heavily contributing to the overall EM slowdown. Brazil in particular is poised to continue gradually recovering, following the presidential election. In the equity market, EM stocks are expected to deliver double-digit appreciation, with Brazil, Chile, Indonesia and Russia as top overweight picks.


OPEC Supply Cuts to Boost Oil

After sharp falls seen in the oil price in October and November, J.P. Morgan forecasts a moderate recovery in oil prices from current levels in the first half of 2019. This view is based on the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cutting supply, but later in the year prices are expected to trend lower as global growth cools. Brent is expected to average at $73 per barrel next year according to J.P. Morgan Research, with the average for 2020 seen at $64 per barrel. Meanwhile in metals, the gold price is expected to pick up in the second half of the year and base metals are expected to come under increasing pressure as the macro cycle rolls over.


Dollar is Down, But Not Out

The U.S. dollar (USD) had an unexpectedly strong 2018, with the greenback bouncing just under 9% from February lows, undoing the bulk of 2017’s dollar bear market. “The biggest change the team expects in 2019 will be the fading of U.S. economic exceptionalism,” said Head of Cross-Asset Fundamental Strategy John Normand. As U.S. growth eases off and the rest of the world catches up, J.P. Morgan analysts forecast the dollar will be less supported against the euro and other developed market currencies in 2019, particularly in the second half of the year, but this is not expected to result in a broad bear market for the USD generally. Elsewhere, sterling will likely remain under pressure amid Brexit negotiations.

Global Rates

Three More Fed Hikes

Global growth is expected to become more synchronised and the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike three times in 2019 according to J.P. Morgan forecasts. Supported by a tightening Fed, rising policy rates in other developed market (DM) countries and higher inflation expectations, J.P. Morgan projects 10-year yields will rise to 3.6% by the end of the year.

The inversion of the yield curve, or the difference between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, will also be closely followed in 2019. Since 1960, seven of the last eight yield curve inversions were followed by recession and the J.P. Morgan Fixed Income team expects it to turn negative in late 2019. In Europe, 2019 will be better than 2018 with 10-year German bund yields expected to hit 1%. In the U.K., as Brexit negotiations rumble on, J.P. Morgan Research is bearish on U.K. rates, with a baseline forecast of 1.75% for 10-year gilt yields in the second half of the year.

Enter your details below

Let us help you